A Once in a Decade Opportunity

Every ten years, the results of the National Census trigger redistricting in the states. This means that after the 2020 Census, every state will redraw its electoral district maps—an opportunity that will not arise again until 2031. State legislatures control the redistricting process in 37 states, so who we send to our state legislatures between now and 2020 will have consequences for years to come.

RACE TARGETING STRATEGY

Elections in 2019 and 2020 are the last chance for Democrats to gain power in state legislatures prior to redistricting in 2021, which will determine the maps for the next decade.

In these two years, we will focus on “Last Chance” races: the last elections before redistricting in 2021, in states where the legislature controls redistricting - meaning whoever is elected in the race will draw their state’s next maps.

We will prioritize Last Chance races that also meet one of our overall strategic goals:

  • Blue flips: chambers where Democrats are down 1-3 seats that we can flip blue in one cycle

  • Blue holds: chambers where Democrats hold a fragile 1-2 seat majority that must be defended

  • Blue Inroads: badly gerrymandered states whose congressional maps would fail a 7% "efficiency gap" threshold, and states having what NYU’s Brennan Center categorizes as "Extreme Maps"

 
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